$$ \newcommand{\bsth}{{\boldsymbol\theta}} \newcommand{\nptime}{\textsf{NP}} \newcommand{\ptime}{\textsf{P}} \newcommand{\disteq}{\overset{d}{=}} %linalg \newcommand{\mat}[1]{\begin{pmatrix} #1 \end{pmatrix}} \newcommand{\detmat}[1]{\begin{vmatrix} #1 \end{vmatrix}} \newcommand{\spanb}[1]{\text{span}\{ #1 \}} \DeclareMathOperator{\conv}{conv} % convex hull \DeclareMathOperator{\cone}{cone} \DeclareMathOperator{\vectorize}{vec} \DeclareMathOperator{\matricize}{mat} \DeclareMathOperator{\adj}{adj} \DeclareMathOperator{\diag}{diag} \DeclareMathOperator{\tr}{tr} \DeclareMathOperator{\rank}{rank} \DeclareMathOperator*{\argmin}{argmin} \DeclareMathOperator*{\proj}{proj} % brackets, norms, cardinalities \newcommand{\pa}[1]{ \left({#1}\right) } \newcommand{\ha}[1]{ \left[{#1}\right] } \newcommand{\ca}[1]{ \left\{{#1}\right\} } \newcommand{\inner}[1]{\left\langle #1 \right\rangle} \newcommand{\innercpy}[1]{\inner{ #1, #1 }} \newcommand{\norm}[1]{\left\| #1 \right\|} \newcommand{\abs}[1]{\left|{#1}\right|} \newcommand{\card}[1]{\left\vert{#1}\right\vert} % math vectors \newcommand{\va}{\textbf{a}} \newcommand{\vb}{\textbf{b}} \newcommand{\vc}{\textbf{c}} \newcommand{\vd}{\textbf{d}} \newcommand{\ve}{\textbf{e}} \newcommand{\vf}{\textbf{f}} \newcommand{\vg}{\textbf{g}} \newcommand{\vh}{\textbf{h}} \newcommand{\vi}{\textbf{i}} \newcommand{\vj}{\textbf{j}} \newcommand{\vk}{\textbf{k}} \newcommand{\vl}{\textbf{l}} \newcommand{\vm}{\textbf{m}} \newcommand{\vn}{\textbf{n}} \newcommand{\vo}{\textbf{o}} \newcommand{\vp}{\textbf{p}} \newcommand{\vq}{\textbf{q}} \newcommand{\vr}{\textbf{r}} \newcommand{\vs}{\textbf{s}} \newcommand{\vt}{\textbf{t}} \newcommand{\vu}{\textbf{u}} \newcommand{\vv}{\textbf{v}} \newcommand{\vw}{\textbf{w}} \newcommand{\vx}{\textbf{x}} \newcommand{\vy}{\textbf{y}} \newcommand{\vz}{\textbf{z}} \newcommand{\vzero}{\textbf{0}} \newcommand{\vone}{\textbf{1}} \newcommand{\valpha}{{\boldsymbol\alpha}} \newcommand{\vepsilon}{{\boldsymbol\epsilon}} \newcommand{\vnu}{{\boldsymbol\nu}} \newcommand{\vpi}{{\boldsymbol\pi}} \newcommand{\veta}{{\boldsymbol\eta}} \newcommand{\vsigma}{ {\boldsymbol\sigma}} \newcommand{\vbeta}{ {\boldsymbol\beta}} \newcommand{\vtheta}{ {\boldsymbol\theta}} \newcommand{\vdelta}{ {\boldsymbol\delta}} \newcommand{\vlambda}{ {\boldsymbol\lambda}} \newcommand{\vmu}{ {\boldsymbol\mu}} % common math sets \newcommand{\Z}{\mathbb{Z}} \newcommand{\R}{\mathbb{R}} \newcommand{\C}{\mathbb{C}} \newcommand{\N}{\mathbb{N}} \newcommand{\Q}{\mathbb{Q}} \newcommand{\F}{\mathbb{F}} \newcommand{\T}{\mathbb{T}} % limits \def\sumn{\sum_{n=0}^\infty} \def\limn{\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty}} \def\prodn{\prod_{n=0}^\infty} % mathcal \newcommand{\mcA}{\mathcal{A}} \newcommand{\mcB}{\mathcal{B}} \newcommand{\mcC}{\mathcal{C}} \newcommand{\mcD}{\mathcal{D}} \newcommand{\mcE}{\mathcal{E}} \newcommand{\mcF}{\mathcal{F}} \newcommand{\mcG}{\mathcal{G}} \newcommand{\mcH}{\mathcal{H}} \newcommand{\mcI}{\mathcal{I}} \newcommand{\mcJ}{\mathcal{J}} \newcommand{\mcK}{\mathcal{K}} \newcommand{\mcL}{\mathcal{L}} \newcommand{\mcM}{\mathcal{M}} \newcommand{\mcN}{\mathcal{N}} \newcommand{\mcO}{\mathcal{O}} \newcommand{\mcP}{\mathcal{P}} \newcommand{\mcQ}{\mathcal{Q}} \newcommand{\mcR}{\mathcal{R}} \newcommand{\mcS}{\mathcal{S}} \newcommand{\mcT}{\mathcal{T}} \newcommand{\mcU}{\mathcal{U}} \newcommand{\mcV}{\mathcal{V}} \newcommand{\mcW}{\mathcal{W}} \newcommand{\mcX}{\mathcal{X}} \newcommand{\mcY}{\mathcal{Y}} \newcommand{\mcZ}{\mathcal{Z}} % distribs, probability \newcommand{\disteq}{\overset{d}{=}} \newcommand\independent{\perp \!\!\! \perp} \DeclareMathOperator{\Laplace}{Laplace} \DeclareMathOperator{\Poisson}{Poisson} \DeclareMathOperator{\Exponential}{Exponential} \DeclareMathOperator{\Multinomial}{Multinomial} \DeclareMathOperator{\Bernoulli}{Bernoulli} \DeclareMathOperator{\Categorical}{Categorical} \DeclareMathOperator{\Uniform}{Uniform} \DeclareMathOperator{\Binomial}{Binomial} \DeclareMathOperator{\Hypergeometric}{Hypergeometric} \DeclareMathOperator{\GammaDist}{Gamma} \DeclareMathOperator{\NegativeBinomial}{NegativeBinomial} \DeclareMathOperator\sub{sub} \renewcommand{\d}[1]{\mathop{\mathrm{d} #1 }} \newcommand{\dkl}[2]{\mathop{D_\mathrm{KL}}\left({#1}\;\middle\|\;{#2}\right)} \newcommand{\sg}{\mathop{\mathrm{SG}}} \newcommand{\se}{\mathop{\mathrm{SE}}} %operators \DeclareMathOperator{\power}{{\mathcal{P}}} \DeclareMathOperator{\var}{var} \DeclareMathOperator{\cov}{cov} \DeclareMathOperator\mathProb{\mathbb{P}} \DeclareMathOperator\mathExp{\mathbb{E}} \DeclareMathOperator*\mathExpUnder{\mathbb{E}} \DeclareMathOperator*\fat{fat} \renewcommand{\P}{\mathProb} % need to overwrite stupid paragraph symbol \newcommand{\E}{\mathExp} % need to overwrite stupid paragraph symbol \newcommand{\set}[2]{ \left\{ #1 \,\middle|\, #2 \right\} } \newcommand{\CE}[2]{ \mathExp\left[ #1 \,\middle|\, #2 \right] } \renewcommand{\CP}[2]{ \mathProb\left\{ #1 \,\middle|\, #2 \right\} } $$
If you read Judea Pearl’s The Book of Why, it makes it seem like exercising observational statistics makes you an ignoramus. Look at the stupid robot:Pearl and Jonas Peters (in Elements of Causal Inference) both make a strong distinction, it seems at the physical level, between causal and statistical learning. Correlation is not causation, as it goes.From a deeply (Berkeley-like) skeptical lens, where all that we can be sure of is what we observe, it seems that we nonetheless can recover nice...